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We recognise that all these are forecasts and assessments in an area in which it is formidably hard to be precise, but each is a legitimate contribution to our wider argument: our membership of the EU boosts economic growth, trade and lowers prices. It is notable that those campaigning to leave the EU cannot take on the substance of these core economic arguments and are focusing instead on discrediting individual institutions.
Specific points of opposition are no substitute for a credible proposition on Britain’s future prosperity – something entirely lacking from each of the divided Leave campaigns.
Our campaign has not made calculations purposefully to mislead, something of which our opponents are guilty. Their claim, for example, that we send £350 million a week to Europe is false on a number of counts: it looks at the gross figure; ignores what we receive in return; ignores our rebate; and omits to say whether they believe the funding we receive, for example for agriculture or research, should be retained.
The Spectator asserts that if there were a Leave vote nothing would change for two years, despite the Governor of the Bank of England and several financial institutions warning of potential shocks to the economy. The economic fallout from the uncertainty that would result from a Leave vote would not be postponed and could be immediate. Longer term, it is true that the impact on investment decisions would be significant.
Evidence will of course be vital in this campaign. There is much to show how we benefit from being in, whether measured by jobs created, GDP growth, export or investment values or even rights in the workplace.
Our opponents, meanwhile, seem unable to provide any evidence that their preferred alternative to EU membership is achievable. The Spectator refers to our trade imbalance with the EU but overlooks that on average 5% of EU countries’ goods exports come to the UK whereas 50% of ours are destined for the EU. The Leave campaigns’ argument that we can end free movement and budget contributions while simultaneously accessing the single market is unprecedented and simply unattainable.
Transparency about the realities of a Britain outside Europe, to compare with the benefits of our existing arrangement, would greatly enhance this debate.
Will Straw is executive director of Britain Stronger in Europe.
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