If Jeremy Corbyn is elected Labour leader on Saturday, does this mean the party will lose the next general election? Lord Ashcroft has produced a new report, Project Red Dawn, which examines why Labour lost the 2015 general election and what it needs to do to win again. His findings all point to another defeat under Corbyn’s leadership.
Ashcroft’s research says the single biggest reason Labour lost was Ed Miliband, who defectors said was not up to the job of Prime Minister. The Tories will undoubtedly do their utmost to paint Corbyn — who has less experience in office than Miliband — in exactly the same light.
Defectors to the Conservative party were put off by the threat of Labour overspending. They also felt Britain is going in the right direction and a change of government wasn’t needed. The Labour-Ukip defectors agreed with these sentiments, adding that the party no longer stood up for people like them.
Tony Blair is another key reason Labour could lose in 2020 – but not because everyone hates him as much as the Corbynistas do. In Ashcroft’s research, both Labour loyalists and defectors cited Blair as the best Labour leader of the past 30 years — including a majority of Labour-Tory defectors. If it wants to win again, the party needs accept that voters still rate Blair.
Jon Cruddas, who served as Ed Miliband’s policy chief, made this point on the Today programme, arguing that Labour needs to ‘rehabilitate’ Blair if it wants to get out of its current funk:
‘At some stage, the Labour party’s going to have to rehabilitate Blair and his legacy. And it goes beyond this simple caricature of what it was. I mean, it was a rich, textured political project that had real grip in the country and that’s part of the crisis that is consuming us now because now he’s become some sort of figure to be demonised.’
Although Corbyn has not personally attacked Blair, his online army of supporters frequently paint him as the devil incarnate. No one is expecting a rehabilitation of New Labour under Corbyn and given so many Labour defectors rate the former PM highly, the ghost of Blair will pose a problem at the next election.
There is also evidence that Labour is opting for purity over winning. Ashcroft’s research says that 52 per cent of Labour loyalists believe that the top priority for the party is to have the right principles, compared to 48 per cent who think it should focus on winning elections, even if it requires compromising. Opting for the comfort blanket approach of pure principles — one of the key components behind Corbynmania — is a sure way of keeping Labour in opposition for the foreseeable future.
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