What happened to the Rishi Sunak I knew at school?
Will the plans get through his cabinet and party? In 10 Downing Street, cabinet approval is viewed as the easier of the two. The threat of an imminent reshuffle will certainly focus minds over the consequences of speaking out — but there could still be the odd minister willing to take a stand. Downing Street view backbench MPs as harder to win around. Over the weekend, parliamentarians were sending the whips quotes from articles suggesting the NI hike is regressive and the social care plan ineffective. The fact that it is being tied with funds to clear the backlog could make it harder to oppose.
With a majority in the region of 80, Johnson believes he can face down his critics. When the Chancellor addressed MPs last night at a reception of the 1922 Committee, he urged them to keep a united front and — like him — take their lead from the Prime Minister. With many of the objections coming from MPs worried about the consequences of breaking a manifesto pledge, it will ultimately come down to how much trust they place in Johnson to make the right decision.
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