Israel has started to prepare for a ground invasion of Lebanon amid international calls for ceasefire. This is the next stage of Israel’s operation against Hezbollah – which began with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, and continued with the killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, as well as nearly all of the terror organisation’s top commanders.
The Israeli air force continues to bomb Hezbollah’s infrastructure and is preparing the ground for troops to enter southern Lebanon, which might happen later this week. Special units from the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have already carried out limited operations across the border, in order to gather vital information that will aid forces during a ground manoeuvre and reduce risk.
The opportunity to significantly weaken the region’s largest and most powerful terror organisation is too good to pass up
The IDF’s mission will be to find and destroy Hezbollah’s assets, including tunnels and weapons caches. It remains to be seen whether forces will target the vast array of tunnels between Syria and Lebanon, used for smuggling weapons to Hezbollah. The IDF also wants to push the terrorists away from the border.
Israel’s objectives are to weaken Hezbollah enough to allow for the return of civilians to their homes. Ten of thousands of Israelis have spent nearly a year living as refugees in their own country as a result of Hezbollah’s indiscriminate bombing of northern Israel. Hezbollah has also been planning an attack similar to Hamas’s 7 October massacre. Ensuring that they are unable to carry out such an attack is another key objective.
During the IDF’s prolonged presence in south Lebanon, from 1985 until 2000, and in the second Lebanon war in 2006, it struggled to achieve a decisive victory. At most, results were mixed. Fighting Hezbollah on its home turf has always proven extremely complicated.
The successful attacks launched against the organisation in the past two weeks have been a military and intelligence triumph. It has created a unique opportunity to strike Hezbollah while it is in a state of chaos: most of its leadership has been eliminated and some have already fled to Syria. Hezbollah has a barely-functioning communications system; many of its members have been hurt and are unable to fight; and much of its weapons reserves have been hit.
In addition, the IDF forces that Hezbollah will meet on the ground are a world apart from the troops it has fought in previous wars. Israel’s army is more skilled and more sophisticated than ever. The IDF, backed by Israel’s various intelligence agencies, have been preparing for war against Hezbollah for 17 years. Now it’s ready to act.
The US, UK, Germany and France have called for a de-escalation and a ceasefire. They are worried about an escalation that could result in a wider regional war. Although this is a valid concern, Middle Eastern geopolitics, and in particular the radical forces operating within it, call for a realpolitik approach.
The opportunity to significantly weaken the region’s largest and most powerful terror organisation, that has participated in violent suppressions of civilians in Syria, Iran, Lebanon and elsewhere, is too good to pass up. Weakening Hezbollah – Iran’s most powerful proxy – will also have implications for Iran’s geopolitical power.
The only ones who will benefit from a ceasefire at this stage are Hezbollah and Iran. It will give them a much-needed respite that will allow Hezbollah to rearm and rebuild itself. It will make a ceasefire unsustainable and it will not benefit the region’s security in the long term.
This doesn’t mean that a diplomatic solution isn’t necessary. Israel will have to find a way to eventually translate military achievements into long term political solutions that guarantee the security of its northern border and the safety of its citizens. To reach a long-term, sustainable truce, Israel has to re-establish its deterrence by military means. But the Israeli government needs to be clearer about its goals and its long-term strategy in Lebanon. Right now, such clarity is lacking.
The demise of Hezbollah could have wider ramifications for the Middle East. Removing a force that has terrorised the region for three decades, while also damaging Iranian power, will delight, and hopefully empower, moderate Arab nations. The opportunity here is too good to miss.
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