By mid-century, the world’s population will be 50 per cent higher than
it is now, says Richard Ehrman, but the boom will come from developing
countries, not Europe, and that’s very bad news indeed
What happened to the Rishi Sunak I knew at school?
If demography is destiny, then, on the face of it, Britain should be
feeling pretty smug. In late May the number of people in the UK finally
passed the 60 million mark. By 2031, according to official projections
released last month, there will be 67 million of us. While populations
across most of the rest of Europe are stagnating, and many will soon be
shrinking, ours is booming.
So why does this bountiful prospect make so many of us
uneasy? A century ago such news would have been greeted with
jubilation, as another sign of national virility and self-confidence.
But today people do not quite know what to think. We know that
immigration is the overwhelming cause of our population growth,
followed by greater longevity. This makes people nervous. We also
realise that the birth rate is below replacement level, and that we
have got to find workers from somewhere to support us through our old
age.
Less well known is that, around the globe, most countries are
facing demographic upheaval, many on a scale far greater than we are.
Yet this gets far less attention than, say, climate change, even though
we can be far more certain that it will transform the way we live, and
in ways that are much easier to predict.
During the last 50 years populations increased pretty much
across the board in developed and undeveloped countries alike, albeit
at different rates. Now the demographic plates are not just shifting,
but diverging. Japan, Russia and many southern and eastern European
countries face a sustained, outright fall in population over the next
50 years
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