As regular readers will know, I am a great admirer of the training talents of Harry Derham and I have no doubt that he will reach the top in his chosen profession. This month he reached a significant landmark, training the 100th winner of his career.
Derham, aged just 30 and the nephew of 14-times champion National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls, certainly has his string in sparkling form at present with six winners from just 18 runs over the past two weeks for an impressive strike rate of 33 per cent. All the signs are that he is a man to follow in the final weeks of the jump season.
Tomorrow his horse NORN IRON looks to have a strong chance at Newbury in the Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (2.05 p.m.). This lightly-raced seven-year-old gelding was slightly disappointing last time out when only fourth to Cavern Club at Doncaster when favourite for the race, but he is better judged on his penultimate run at Newbury.
Then he just missed out when losing a sustained duel on the run-in with the winner, Bucephalus. Trainer Neil Mulholland’s horse then franked that form when following up under a 7lb higher official rating at Chepstow, beating his six rivals by a comfortable margin of 11 lengths or more, despite serious mistakes at the last two hurdles. Back Norn Iron 1 point each way at 5-1 with bet365, paying four places.
Just over an hour later, Derham trains the top weight JASMINE BLISS in the BetVictor British EBF National Hunt Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (3.15 p.m.). This six-year-old is on a hat-trick after beating La Pinsonniere by 11 lengths at Southwell. Nicky Hendersons mare re-opposes on 7lb better terms tomorrow but it may not be sufficient for her to gain revenge.
Siog Geal, Betty’s Tiara and Scarlet O’Tara are among the many dangers in a 16-runner race for a prize of more than £28,000 to the winner. But back Jasmine Bliss 1 point each way at 11-2 with 888sport, paying five places
After the withdrawal of Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin from the Randox Grand National earlier this week, I have taken another close look at the latter race. I have already put up Paul Nicholls’s Kandoo Kid each way at 33-1 and I am happy with that bet.
The two most likely winners of the race now are two horses that connections have aimed solely at this one race all season – Iroko and Intense Raffles. The trouble is that they are now vying for favouritism, each at no bigger than 8-1, and that’s no value.
Instead, I will put up a second horse for the race at a much bigger price on the basis not just of his win last time out but equally on the form he showed just over two years ago when a close third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow.
MONBEG GENIUS has run more bad races than good ones since that fine performance and has had his fitness problems too. However, he is still only nine years old and I am hoping that he will race prominently at Aintree – out of trouble – from the off as he did last time out at Uttoxeter.
The softer the ground, the better for the Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill-trained stayer so connections will be hoping for plenty of rain between now and 5 April. We know that the course will water if necessary to make the ground ‘good to soft’ but I hope it will be proper soft going at Aintree to enhance Monbeg Genius’s chances.
He will run in the Grand National off an official mark of 147 – the same rating that he had when third in the Coral Gold Cup (still known as the ‘Hennessy Gold Cup’ to many) in December 2023. Back Monbeg Genius 1 point each way for the Grand National at 33-1 with bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Unibet or 888sport, all offering five places.
Equally important, given the horse’s frailties, all these bookies are Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) too. There will be more places available on the day but I would be surprised if the horse is still 33-1 – his odds are only 20-1 now with SkyBet, Paddy Power and Betfair.
Last Friday: – 9.6 points.
1 point each way Hello Neighbour at 15-2 for the Triumph Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Our Champ at 66-1 for the County Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Wendigo at 14-1 NRNB for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Wendigo at 10-1 for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2points.
1 point each way Taponthego at 7-1 for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. 4th. + 0.4 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Norn Iron at 5-1 for the Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Jasmine Bliss at 11/2 for the BetVictor British EBF National Hunt Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Kandoo Kid at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 32.86 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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