James Forsyth
Already a subscriber? Log in
It is easy to forget what a change this is. One veteran of the Major years observed to me this week that in his day Gove would have had either to deny that he thought Britain should threaten to leave, or quit the government. This Euroscepticism isn’t limited to MPs and activists. Party donors now firmly oppose the reach of Brussels. The party chairman Andrew Feldman’s own position reflects this.
The people least happy with Gove’s démarche are at the Foreign Office. There has been much grumbling from King Charles Street about how the Education Secretary is undercutting Britain’s influence. There are warnings that his intervention might result in a worse EU budget settlement for Britain. One senior Foreign Office source observes, icily, that the Foreign Secretary ‘has very little patience with self-indulgence by colleagues either senior or junior’.
Hague wants his party to demonstrate ‘strategic patience’. Certainly, what Downing Street needs most when it comes to Europe is time. David Cameron will try and buy some this autumn with a commitment that, if re-elected, he will renegotiate Britain’s membership of the European Union and then hold a referendum on the results.
As a precursor to this renegotiation, the coalition is undertaking a ‘balance of competences’ review. This might sound a thoroughly dull, bureaucratic exercise. But it is terribly important because for the first time it will reveal just how much the European Union influences our national life. It will call for evidence from government departments, business, civil society, think tanks and parliamentary committees. And the government plans to publish the evidence submitted.
Eurosceptic ministers regard this as a great opportunity, as a chance to educate people as to how much the EU impinges on their ability to make decisions. Several ministers have been radicalised by their experience in office, offended by how circumscribed they are by the Brussels raj. One remarks, with relish, that the evidence presented by departments will ‘show us who really runs the place and who is really a Eurosceptic’. The review won’t make any recommendations, but when it concludes in 2014 it will form the evidential basis for renegotiation.
Cameron’s plan is, before Christmas, to commit to a referendum after the next election. The Cameroons hope that this will be enough to satisfy the party’s Eurosceptics. Conservative strategists believe such a move would check Ukip’s advance. The prospect of Nigel Farage’s merry band pushing the Conservatives into third place in the European elections in 2014 sends many of them into cold sweat, and worse.
But the Cameron strategy is not without risk. Having committed to a renegotiation, he will — if he is still Prime Minister after the next election — have to bring something substantial home from Europe. Once you’ve declared that the status quo is unacceptable, you cannot claim that all is well because the National Health Service has been exempted from the working time directive.
The other risk is where Cameron’s party is. Given that the current plan is for the referendum to offer a choice between the new terms and out, the Prime Minister would need to bring back a radically better deal than Britain currently has to prevent his party from splitting on the issue.
One insider calculates that Cameron has a one in five chance of achieving this. He speculates that, ‘If David can’t get much, he can split the party or say out and have 90 per cent of the party behind him.’
Cameron, though, would be reluctant to advocate leaving even if the renegotiation was a disappointment; he genuinely does see benefits to Britain’s EU membership. Some in Downing Street also caution that advocating withdrawal would pit the party against business. Indeed, the greatest weakness of the ‘better off out’ side is that, unlike the campaign against the single currency, it hasn’t garnered serious business support.
The party’s troubled history on matters European, combined with the limits of coalition, had meant that many senior Conservatives wanted to park the European issue for at least five years. But events at home and abroad have made that impossible. Cameron is now faced with making decisions this side of Christmas that will determine the future of Britain’s relationship with Europe.
But for Cameron to have a chance of getting what he wants, he needs to know what he wants. A referendum is not a strategy. What he really requires is a clear vision for what kind of relationship with, or membership of, the European Union he wants for Britain. That can then guide him through the interminable summits that lie ahead.
Also in Politics
Also by James Forsyth
Latest
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in