I would normally stay tipping on the flat for a couple more weeks but this weekend’s Newbury and Doncaster cards make no appeal, gambling wise, while the return of a Saturday jump card at Cheltenham is hugely welcome. On balance, I prefer betting on national hunt racing because it’s easier to get attached to the horses that are racing year after year – and to get to know their preferences, their dislikes and their quirks.
I always bet with caution in the early weeks of a new season because it is impossible to know which horses are fit and which are not
However, I always bet with caution in the early weeks of a new season because it is impossible to know which horses are fit and which are not, especially when they are making their seasonal debuts. Before I address tomorrow’s Cheltenham card, I am going to put up three ante-post bets which I think are good value. Two of the bets are in the same race: the Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree on 9 November. This is a race run over two miles and five furlongs over the Grand National course and so it pays to back horses which have taken to the unusual brush fences.
Step forward FRERO BANBOU because Venetia Williams’s nine-year-old gelding ran well in this race last year, finishing third to the ill-fated Gesskille when beaten less than five lengths. Frero Banbou ran an even better race at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day when second, despite being 4 lbs out of the handicap, to Shakem Up’Arry. Ben Pauling’s gelding went on to land the TrustATrader Plate at the Cheltenham Festival so that form with is rock solid.
Frero Banbou ran poorly in the second half of the season but, as a result, he is now running off a mark of 130, 3lbs lower than in the Grand Sefton a year ago. He goes well fresh and so back him each way at 14-1 with bet365, paying four places. The other horse I want to have on side is another nine-year-old gelding PERCUSSION, who split Geskille and Frero Banbou in last year’s race and who loves the Aintree fences. His mark of 129 remains fair.
The worry with Percussion, however, is the poor form of his handler Laura Morgan, who is on the ‘cold list’ having gone 60 runners and 169 days without a winner. Her last three runners in the past fortnight have all been pulled up too.
Morgan, however, is a talented trainer and, on the basis that ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’, I will also suggest an each way bet on Percussion, this time taking the widely available 12-1, four places. Four places could look tasty in two weeks’ time if both horses run and the field is similar in size to last year’s contest when only ten horses lined up at the start.
However, my main ante-post fancy right now is for a race in which the entries have not yet even been published: the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday, 17 November.
The warm favourite for this race is Dysart Enos, who has been described in some circles as the ‘best handicapped horse’ in the country for the new jump season. Fergal O’Brien’s mare is unbeaten in six runs over the past two seasons and she had been due to run in the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March until she went lame on the morning of the race. That proved to be the end to her season.
I don’t doubt she is both talented and well-treated off a rating of 131 but the Greatwood is a tough handicap debut for any horse and her current price of 3-1 looks skinny to me. Dynast Enos may well be slightly fragile too and I am not sure she would run if the ground went heavy.
If she does run, she could well hack up but I would much rather back, at three times the price, a hardened handicapper in GO DANTE, who went from strength to strength last season. Olly Murphy’s eight-year-old gelding showed he is really tough, winning decent handicaps at Cheltenham and Sandown before running superbly to be a close fifth in the Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle at Aintree despite giving away some 20 lengths at the start.
After a prep run this month, Murphy reported Go Dante to be firmly on track for Cheltenham saying in his Racing Post stable tour this week: ‘I was delighted with his comeback run at Ffos Las this month, which he badly needed. He’s had his palate cauterised again and will be 110 per cent ready for the Greatwood Hurdle, which has long been the aim.’ Back Go Dante each way at 9-1 with bet365, paying four places.
Finally, on to Cheltenham tomorrow where I am going to back two outsiders in the William Hill Committed To Top Prices Handicap Chase (2.20 p.m.). I can see why Broadway Boy is the favourite because Nigel Twiston-Davies’s charge is a likeable sort, well handicapped and with winning course form.
However, like several of the runners, his fitness has to be taken on trust and I prefer to back KINONDO KWETU for the wife and husband trainer/jockey team of Sam and Jonathan England.
The eight-year-old gelding thrives on hearing his hooves rattle and so he has been campaigned over the summer, winning at Uttoxeter and Worcester, before being second at Perth behind Hidden Depths. Trainer Neil Mulholland’s horse then franked that from by winning again, this time at Market Rasen ten days ago.
Admittedly those races were moderate contests but back Kinondo Kwetu each way at 20-1 with race sponsors William Hill, paying four places, in the hope the horse can make his fitness advantage tell.
However, in the same race CHASING FIRE looks overpriced too. This is another Olly Murphy inmate and in the same Racing Post stable tour this week, the handler said this horse goes well fresh and does not want very soft ground. With conditions ideal tomorrow for his seasonal debut – and Murphy adding ‘He’s got a lot of ability when everything goes right’ – back Chasing Fire each way at 11-1 with Sky Bet, paying a generous five places. The horse is only a point more with bookies paying less places.
Finally, my thanks for the appreciative comments following the results at Ascot last weekend on Champions Day. Anmaat, first at 40-1 although put up at 28-1 in the Qipco Champion Stakes, and Carrytheone, first at 14-1 in the Balmoral Handicap, clearly boosted the bank accounts of several loyal readers.
Particularly grateful was Carl, who backed both winners and reported he had enjoyed his ‘biggest win of the season’. Happy days indeed especially as it meant I ended the flat season with a healthy profit of 41.4 points on all tips. Here’s hoping the forthcoming jump season is just as lucrative.
Pending:
1 point each way Kinondo Kwetu at 20-1 in the William Hill Committed To Top Prices Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Chasing Fire at 11-1 in the William Hill Committed To Top Prices Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Frero Banbou at 14-1 in the Grand Sefton, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Percussion at 12-1 in the Grand Sefton, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Go Dante at 9-1 in the Greatwood Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: + 45.2 points
1 point each way Burdett Road at 28-1 in the Long Distance Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Quantanamera at 10-1 in the Fillies and Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Facteur Cheval at 9-1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 2nd. + 0.8 points.
1 point each way Anmaat at 28-1 in the Champion Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 1st. + 33.6 points.
1 point each way Bopedro at SP in the Balmoral Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Carrytheone at SP in the Balmoral Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places. 1st 14-1. + 16.8 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past nine years: I have made a profit in 16 of the past 18 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 558.4 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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