My picks for Cheltenham and the Twelve

With farmers outraged, the nation’s biggest employers warning the Budget will bring increased prices and lost jobs and growth out of sight, Rachel Reeves has certainly confirmed that economics is the dismal science. It hasn’t got any easier either finding winners. For the previous two Flat seasons this column’s Twelve To Follow showed profits of £59 and £157 to a £10 level stake. The jumpers last winter rewarded us with a handsome £246. But currently I’m like a US senator unseated at an election. He called in his staff and declared: ‘That was an unmitigated disaster: so get out there and mitigate.’

Soaking wet gallops and soggy tracks didn’t help. King of Steel and Classical Song were injured and didn’t see a racecourse. Richard Hannon’s Voyage unseated at the start in the Derby, and although Mickley won at Royal Ascot, he was then sold to race in Hong Kong. Kikkuli was rated good enough for the USA Breeders Cup but stumbled under Frankie Dettori and Chic Colombine, a Listed winner at Saint Cloud in March, finished eighth of nine when sent back there in October. Yes, Mickley and English Oak each won twice, and Azure Blue and Sea Just In Time also scored but overall the prices were poor. The 42 runs left us with a loss of £220. Apologies.

Climate change has messed too with selecting this winter’s Twelve. Half a ton of horse rests on potentially fragile legs and throughout an unusually dry October and November, trainers have been reluctant to risk their better horses on excessively firm ground. My cigarette packet warning must be that early season form may be deceptive, but let’s try anyway to wriggle a few under the bookies’ radar. Venetia Williams’s Royal Pagaille, a previous Twelve selection, confirmed his stable’s wellbeing with a brave repeat win in Haydock’s Betfair Chase last Saturday while little Martator scored his fifth successive win at Ascot. Martator is still on the upgrade but I will go instead with Venetia’s French import Bucksy des Epeires, given an educational ride by the underrated Charlie Deutsch when winning an Ascot novice chase. On the same card, Sam Thomas’s Celtic Dino looked equally progressive following up a Wincanton win by taking the introductory hurdle, so he goes in too.

We need potential Cheltenham Festival candidates and Dan Skelton, all out to win a first trainer’s title, surely has one in L’Eau du Sud, an 11-length winner of November’s Arkle Trial novice chase. His trainer already calls him the best two-mile novice in Britain: ‘With a horse like him you are entitled to get excited.’ Nigel Twiston-Davies, soon to be joined on the trainer’s ticket by son Willy, is having a great season and their five-year-old Potters Charm will be contesting the best staying novice hurdles. Willy declares: ‘We haven’t had one like him for a while.’

If there’s a trainer in Britain who deserves the ‘P for progressive’, it is surely the Newmarket-based James Owen, who began with purebred Arabians and who in just two seasons with a licence has already positioned himself as an outstanding dual purpose trainer, with 56 flat winners and 34 over jumps so far this year. His Wimbledon Hawkeye is a likely Classic contender on the flat and with Burdett Road he won the Greatwood, the biggest hurdle race in Britain so far this season. His East India Dock, already a Cheltenham winner, is bound for the Triumph Hurdle; but for the Twelve, I’ll go with one he told us could be even better over hurdles, the Goodwood flat winner Lavender Hill Mob.

Half a ton of horse rests on fragile legs, and trainers have been reluctant to risk their better ones on firm ground

Cheshire-based Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero are another progressive team. Their Iroko made a decent seasonal debut at Haydock and must figure in J.P. McManus’s Grand National plans but I will go for the massive White Rhino, who also stays forever for the Twelve. Philip Hobbs shares a licence with Johnson White, and I am including their comfortable Aintree winner Imperial Saint, who runs for a syndicate headed by the former champion jockey Richard Johnson. Another horse who could pick up a nice pot at Aintree is Tom Lacey’s long-striding Cruz Control, a big fellow who has been given time to develop.

Given the likely Irish domination at Cheltenham next spring, it would be unwise not to include at least a pair of Irish contenders. Although Gavin Cromwell says Inothe-wayurthinkin needs to improve his jumping, I think he could be a Gold Cup contender, and Henry de Bromhead will surely bring back last year’s Supreme Novices winner Slade Steel. We need something for the Mares’ Hurdle and Jamie Snowden’s ever-strengthening team could have the answer with Hollygrove Cha Cha. Another mare to catch the eye was Leloopa at Huntingdon. As a jockey, Paddy Brennan had many successes with trainer Fergal O’Brien, and it looks as though with her he has picked a good one for his old boss to train for his syndicate. And the last of the Twelve: Ben Pauling has a good record at Cheltenham and his I’m Ravenous jumped well at Warwick on his switch to chasing. May they all come back safely.