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That said, the worst conclusion that Conservatives gathering in Bournemouth could draw is that the task ahead of them is now straightforward, and that the process of party reform can now be slowed or even — as some would like — halted altogether. The Tories still have fewer seats than Michael Foot won in the 1983 election. David Cameron’s poll lead is resilient rather than commanding. The public is deeply exasperated with Labour. But it is not yet prepared to hand the keys to No. 10 to the Conservative party.
In broad terms, Mr Blair correctly identified the problems that face the country, which are, as he said, ‘essentially global’. Economic competitiveness, population mobility, crime networks, Islamist terrorism, the astonishing impact of information technology: all are global phenomena. What the Prime Minister did not, and could not, admit was that his own party has shown itself incapable of confronting these challenges, and in many respects has made the country more vulnerable to such threats. This government has lost control of our borders, presided over a disastrous education policy and seems determined to empty our prisons rather than build new ones. It still endorses a ‘European social model’ that would lock the British economy into the past century, not prepare it for the competitive gales of this one.
Mr Cameron’s task is to show that he understands these challenges and that a Conservative government would tackle them more dynamically. Mr Blair is right that the next election will be about ‘who has the strength, judgment, weight and ideas for Britain’s future in an uncertain world’. It is for the Tory leader to demonstrate that he and his party are equal to that challenge.
There will be grumbling at Bournemouth about Mr Cameron’s modernisation of his party and claims that it has already gone too far. True, the Tory leader will not win office, or deserve to, if his only achievement is a transformation of the Conservative image. On occasion, this preoccupation has led him to make mistakes: his notorious ‘hug a hoodie’ speech demonstrated what happens when the fixation with ‘niceness’ is taken too far. But it is idle to pretend that a party that has suffered three successive general election defeats can be complacent about its collective personality and the face it presents to the electorate. As easy as it is to mock the ‘rebranding’ of the party — the visit to the glacier, new logo and cuddly language — this campaign has started to shift public opinion on the Tories, in conspicuous contrast to every other Conservative strategy since 1997. The warm remarks of Sen. John McCain, the front-runner for the US presidency, in our interview today are a measure of Mr Cameron’s rising stock. His efforts are being taken seriously by those surveying the geopolitical future.
The Tory party still has much work to do to persuade the public that it is on the side of the whole nation rather than only part of it; that its instincts are decent rather than selfish; and that its sights are set on the best possible future rather than the restoration of an imagined past. The unfairness of such perceptions is irrelevant. They are real enough, and cannot be wished away by the Tory Trotskyites who still believe that the public is in the grip of a long bout of ‘false consciousness’. Mr Cameron’s reforms may be painful, but they are necessary if the party is to stay on the path to power. Those who believe otherwise should think very hard about the damage that a fourth successive election defeat would inflict upon the party and, by extension, the country.
What Mr Cameron does need to do in Bournemouth is to answer the charge that his leadership is all style and no substance. This does not mean that he should announce a raft of policies. It does mean that he should speak more clearly of the trajectory upon which he would set a future Tory government. He needs to explain that his emphasis on style is a means to an end; that he promises economic stability now so that he can deliver tax cuts later; that he would genuinely put patients and parents first in his reform of the public sector; that when he talks about ‘trusting people’ it is more than a slogan and that he is serious about devolving power to the citizen.
This will be a challenging conference for Mr Cameron. Last year, as a leadership contender, he had all the advantages that come with the shock of the new. Now he must explain to his party that the work has only just begun, and to the nation that he is more than a brand manager. These are huge tasks. But they are also the first real test of his leadership, and of his determination to stick to his guns. Like the Iron Lady, Mr Cameron should not — cannot — be for turning.
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