Already a subscriber? Log in
Labour’s favourite focus group trick is to show swing voters a picture of Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne together and ask if the pair can be trusted to save the economy. Mr Cameron’s reshuffle was primarily intended to present a new picture to the public, with Mr Clarke in the middle. It was also meant to make the shadow cabinet look less posh with the gruff yet avuncular Eric Pickles as chairman and the grammar school boy Chris Grayling (interviewed on page 16) promoted to shadow home secretary.
When the draft list was finished, I am told that Mr Cameron remarked to his aides ‘no one can call us the toffs’ party now’. This does not so much reflect the Tory leader’s sensitivity about Prime Minister’s flat-footed class war tactics, but his desire to woo Labour voters — particularly the slice of the electorate Tony Blair stole in 1997. So his team now has a softer, more classless face.
But while this is certainly a campaign-ready team, it is harder to say if they are government-ready. This time last year, there were two Tory policy missions which at least had revolutionary potential: welfare reform and the transformation of schools. The latter commitment is undiminished, with Michael Gove set to launch a new category of independent schools serving state pupils. But the prospect of Theresa May running welfare reform sends a clear signal that Mr Cameron has effectively given up on what ought to have been the toughest and most radical task undertaken by his government.
The Department for Work and Pensions has 5.2 million working-age ‘clients’ (as it calls them), a greater number than the population of Ireland. The Tory mission is — or was — to liberate them from dependency, identify and root out the poverty traps, change the incentives, and ensure no one makes welfare a lifestyle choice. This means mastering welfare-to-work provision, understanding what causes welfare ghettos and restructuring a bureaucratic empire. It is the most mind-bogglingly technical, detailed, potentially morale-draining and yet vital mission in British politics today.
It is also the toughest task, one that Tony Blair retreated from and Baroness Thatcher did not attempt. It may just be that, as the recession has deepened, David Cameron has already quietly given it up. He embraced this challenge when Britain had so many jobs that 1,500 immigrants a day were arriving to fill them. To force people off benefits now would involve the kind of battle that Mr Grayling had been bracing himself for by getting to know every player — and every scam — in the labyrinthine world of welfare-to-work provision.
Perhaps Ms May will confound us all by matching his energy and drive, displaying a reforming zeal as yet undetected in her record. Perhaps Mr Cameron genuinely regards her as one of his most energetic, effective operators, able to re-engineer an entire bureaucratic empire. Or perhaps Mr Cameron decided it is better, politically, to change direction entirely and have Ms May attacking James Purnell for his welfare reform proposals over the next few months.
Another area where confrontation has been avoided is Europe. Much Tory policy- making is carried out in almost touching ignorance of the extent to which Brussels now ties the hands of British prime ministers. Mr Cameron’s plans for a VAT holiday for small firms, for example, are illegal under EU law. His proposals to abolish school expulsion tribunals violate the right to a fair trial as defined by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). It may sound absurd, but such is the mostly unspoken reality of British governance.
The frontbencher best equipped to understand these nuances, Dominic Grieve QC, is — alas — perhaps the most ardent Tory supporter of the ECHR. Now sent to be shadow justice minister, he is likely to ensure that the British Bill of Rights — billed as the flagship Tory legal reform — will have inferior status to the decisions of Strasbourg and therefore be, by definition, useless. He is also sceptical about the Tory plans for elected police chiefs (as is Oliver Letwin, who remains policy chief) leaving Mr Grayling with an immediate internal battle to fight.
Now and again, it is asked why politicians can achieve so little with the power they acquire. The answer is that reform is a bloody task, which requires an attention span longer than most politicians can manage. The Whitehall system doesn’t need to defeat reforming ministers, just to outlast them. Yet Mr Cameron will and should be judged by how radical he is. He will either be a reformer or a failure: the status quo he will inherit will be that of a near-bankrupt country with at least six million on out-of-work benefits and rampant state-spending unsupported by what he is likely to be able to raise in tax.
It has taken this Labour government longer to wreck the economy than previous ones, but they have done so comprehensively. That is why Mr Cameron’s task should be nothing less than the transformation of British government — not so much running the country, but saving it. This is a far bigger task than simply beating a failed Prime Minister, and this is why he needs his shadow cabinet to focus on the radical restructuring of government. For all the ups and downs he has experienced since becoming leader, Mr Cameron will find that his real battle starts after election day.
Also in Politics
Also by Fraser Nelson
Latest
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in