The Boden Belt: the Lib Dems are the new party of the posh

00:00 05:59

James Heale has narrated this article for you to listen to.

The English social season has begun, kicking off with Gold Cup day. But this year, there is a new common denominator in the seats of southern England where the middle classes congregate: Liberal Democrat MPs. From the Cheltenham Festival in March right the way through to Goodwood in September, it is Ed Davey’s party which represents the constituencies where Britain’s bourgeoisie are most comfortable. Whether it is the Boat Race in April (Richmond) or the Derby in June (Epsom and Ewell), or even Wimbledon and Henley in July, everywhere Pimm’s is served, a Lib Dem is the local MP. They dominate the Boden Belt. And even Tories despair that the Lib Dems are the real ‘party of the posh’.

At this week’s spring conference, the party was in an optimistic mood. They were thoroughly at home in the genteel, Remain-voting spa town of Harrogate, a typical Lib Dem seat save for its Yorkshire location. In England the party only holds six seats north of the Midlands – but they tend to be places where the lattes come with oat milk. ‘The rest have Gail’s, we have Betty’s,’ jokes a northern Lib Dem. Of the party’s 59 gains in England last July, 44 came in either the south-east (23) or south-west (21). A WhatsApp chat called ‘Surrey Massive’ has become one of the noisier Lib Dem forums.

Like dogs and their owners, most of Davey’s new MPs look like the seats they now represent. The party’s careful selection process meant candidates in target seats were chosen two years before polling day. Most were born and raised in southern England. A fifth went to Oxbridge and a third to private schools, including Ampleforth, Warminster and Cheltenham Ladies’ College. Once, a Liberal member could be caricatured as an activist in sandals; now they are more likely to be found wearing Sloaney gilets.

One in eight Lib Dems in parliament boast ties with the Armed Services – the same ratio as the Tories, the traditional ‘Forces’ party’. Nine of the 39 MPs with a military background in the Commons are now Lib Dems, compared with just one last time around. They include four members of the Territorial Army and two from the RAF. Royal Wootton Bassett, GCHQ and RAF Brize Norton are all located in Lib Dem constituencies. Many of the new MPs are from Tory families. The parents of Mike Martin, the MP for Tunbridge Wells, met at a Richmond Conservative Association dance. His father stood for Margaret Thatcher’s party at the 1983 election; 30 years on, the son symbolises the ‘right flight’ away from the Conservatives.

There are Liberal long marchers: Tessa Munt and Andrew George are retreads from the coalition era. Rachel Gilmour’s first bid was in 1997; Zöe Franklin won Guildford at her third attempt. But much of the 2024 intake could be characterised as Waitrose Wets radicalised by the campaign to remain or rejoin the EU. Liz Jarvis defected from Labour, citing ‘the perfect storm of Jeremy Corbyn and Brexit’. Chris Coghlan quit the Foreign Office to co-found the obscure pro-EU ‘Renew’ party before he joined the Lib Dems. Monica Harding joined in 2019, claiming she was ‘fed up with shouting at the TV’. Like the Liberals of Jeremy Thorpe’s era, European unity is their great cause. The overall tally of 72 MPs makes them the largest third party in parliament in 100 years.

As voters in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ soured on the Tories, Ed Davey’s forces havebeen well placed to benefit. Boris Johnson, as well as having done his part in sending former Tory voters the Lib Dem way, has been something of a lodestar for Davey. From his aqua stunts to his ‘cakeist’ approach to policy, the Lib Dem leader learned from Johnson how to appeal to Middle England with humour and by avoiding hard choices. Indeed, Johnson’s old seat in Henley went yellow last July, along with David Cameron’s Witney base and Theresa May’s Maidenhead. And, indeed, so did Surrey Heath, the old stomping ground of The Spectator’s editor, Michael Gove.

Everywhere Pimm’s is served, a Lib Dem is the local MP. They dominate the Boden Belt

The local elections in May offer more opportunities for Sir Ed to exploit Tory ‘southern discontent’: Gloucestershire, Devon and Oxfordshire are seen as prime territory. A YouGov poll out this week suggests the Liberal Democrats are now the most popular party in the south of England (excluding London). Future gains could come from reprising the old Liberal trick of being ‘noisy neighbours’ – winning over seats that border yellow constituencies. The capture of St Albans in 2019 enabled victory in Harpenden five years later. Jeremy Hunt, the former chancellor, is now in an unenviable position: his Surrey seat is surrounded by a quartet of Liberal Democrats sitting on majorities of more than 5,000.

The challenge for these MPs, having won over Tory constituencies, is how best to deal with a Labour government. Instinctively, some confess to still feeling more comfortable attacking the Tories. ‘I came into politics because of them,’ admits one. In his speech last weekend, Sir Ed made no fewer than 15 references to the Conservatives; Labour warranted just five. Some within the party fear that going too hard on Keir Starmer could cost them the borrowed votes of Labour supporters in southern seats; a quarter of Davey’s 2024 voters were from the left and supported the party for tactical reasons. But the inheritance tax raid on farmers means Lib Dems in the south-west have to articulate rural anger and channel their inner Clarkson.

A new anti-Labour unit has been set up in Lib Dem HQ to refine attacks on Starmer’s government. The two centre-left parties had little reason to quarrel in the last election. But in the north of England, a series of Lib/Lab straight fights now loom. In May there is the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralty. After that, council elections loom in Newcastle, Sheffield and Liverpool – this last led by the rising star Carl Cashman. ‘The fights will be micro, not macro,’ predicts one MP. Winter fuel is a favoured attack line, but social care and special educational needs offer long-term campaigning potential throughout this parliament too.

The Tories, meanwhile, have few new ideas on how to counter the Lib Dems. ‘It’s like ridding your garden of Japanese knotweed,’ complains one MP. A defeated colleague says there are ‘two distinguishing features’ of the 2024 Lib Dem voter: ‘Long driveways and sanctimony.’ Most begrudgingly praise the door-knocking prowess of Davey’s suburban Stakhanovites, in contrast to the Tories and their ‘paleontological’ canvassing data. A common complaint among Tories in the last parliament was CCHQ’s inability to provide effective attacks on the Liberal Democrats. Graphics attacking Starmer on small boats were photoshopped with Ed Davey’s face – but, says one Blue Wall Tory: ‘Lots of our voters didn’t care.’

Most Tories begrudgingly praise the door-knocking prowess of Davey’s suburban Stakhanovites

The best bet, suggests one senior Tory aide, is reprising the 2010 strategy of ‘love bombing’ the Liberal Democrats: siding with them on some issues to hoover up their support. Others suggest providing a concrete economic offer and framing 2029 as a referendum on Labour. ‘[The Lib Dems’] big risk is they lose their Blue Wall voters and pile on disillusioned left votes in seats it’s hard for them to win,’ says Luke Tryl of polling firm More in Common. ‘It’s a dilemma – most of their voters are centre-left but the voters they need to keep are the grumpy Tories.’ It was Harold Macmillan who once asked his own officials: ‘I am always hearing about the middle classes. What is it they really want? Can you put it down on a sheet of notepaper and then I will see whether we can give it to them.’ A Tory revival in the south may be possible only when a plausible offer is found.

As for Sir Ed’s party, they are enjoying the good times. Among MPs there is talk of a ‘decade of Davey’; a strategy for the next election will develop in due course. ‘We used to talk of two-horse races,’ says one member of the 2024 intake. ‘But now we are in an age of four-way scraps.’ For the Lib Dems, Boris Johnson’s mantra holds true: ‘There are no disasters – only opportunities’.