This weekend’s racing does not get me excited from a betting point of view so instead I am going to put up three ante-post bets at big odds. These horses should give those who follow my tips an interest, hopefully even a profit, at some of the bigger meetings over the coming month.
I can’t resist a big-field handicap on Ascot’s long straight course so the International, run a week tomorrow over seven furlongs, is just my cup of tea. There could be some value about because I rate the favourite, More Thunder, and another fancied runner, Skukuza, as doubtful runners.
The most likely winner of this race in my view is Aalto after his splendid run when pipped on the line by More Thunder in last week’s bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. He is 5lbs well in for the forthcoming Ascot race for which the weights were set before last weekend’s big performance by trainer Ian Williams’ five-year-old gelding.
However, Aalto has been backed from 20-1 to single figures odds in the past five days, plus he is a hold-up horse who needs luck in running. More worrying, there are a lot of thunder showers forecast for Ascot next week and Aalto is a confirmed fast-ground horse. All in all, single figure odds in a likely 29-runner maximum field are a shade too short.
On the other hand, odds of 40-1 on last year’s winner of this race, NORTHERN EXPRESS, are too long, especially as Michael Dods’ runner can race of a 2lbs lower official mark this time around. At seven years old, this admirable gelding might just be past his very best but he was fourth in this race in both 2023 and 2022 and he clearly loves this course and distance.
Unlike with Aalto, all ground conditions come alike to Northern Express which is a big plus. He has run moderately so far this season when Dods’ horses seemed a little out of sorts but the trainer is in much sharper form now with six winners from his last 29 runners over the past fortnight for a strike rate of 21 per cent. Back Northern Express 1 point each way at 40-1 with bet365 or Unibet, paying four places.
Glorious Goodwood is only 11 days away and I am going to put up a couple of horses that are not ground-dependent just in case the rain finally arrives. Both selections also have strong form on Goodwood’s unique turning and undulating track which demands a well-balanced horse if he or she is to run well.
In the seven-furlong Group 2 seven-furlongs HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes on July 29, WITNESS STAND could outrun his odds for the Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole training duo.
There was a lot to like about his return to the track after a break when he has second, beaten only a head, by Holguin in a listed race at Chester last Saturday. Furthermore, Witness Stand ran two big races at Goodwood, when then trained by Tom Clover, in August last year including winning a seven-furlong handicap on good to firm ground at the Glorious Goodwood meeting.
Interestingly, his joint trainers are sure this horse will be even better on soft ground so if the wet stuff does finally arrive that would be a bonus not a concern. Back him 1 point each way at 33-1. Those odds are offered by bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Unibet.
The Coral Golden Mile at Goodwood on 1 August is one of the most competitive handicaps of the year and the draw often plays a key part, with low numbers favoured (although last year the first two home were drawn in stalls 21 and 20).
I am pleased to say that last weekend was profitable for this blog
EBT’S GUARD is a likeable, consistent four-year-old gelding and all tracks and all ground descriptions come alike to him. This horse is in the hands of another extremely capable joint-trainers team of William Muir and Chris Grassick.
Ebt’s Guard was second in a one-mile handicap for three-year-olds last year at Glorious Goodwood and might have won with a clearer run. The Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood on August 1 is his only current entry and he is capable of a big run in the race with better luck in running. Back him 1 point each way at 25-1 with bet365, William Hill or Unibet, all paying four places.
Anyway, that’s three horses, one at 40-1, one at 33-1 and one at 25-1, for an interest over the coming weeks. I have a couple more horses that I am hugely keen on for the second half of the season: one is soft-ground dependent so not suitable as an ante-post bet and the target for the other is undecided. They will, however, certainly be highlighted in this column, hopefully sooner rather than later.
I also have some strong views on ante-post bets for York’s Ebor meeting but that is not until the end of August so I will save those thoughts for a later blog too.
I am pleased to say that last weekend was profitable for this blog with a 12-1 winner in Oneforthegutter and three other placed horse from the five tips. However, See That Storm in the John Smith’s Cup at York was the one that got away, put up each way at 14-1 ante-post before going off at 11-2 on the day.
Through no fault of jockey Callum Rodriguez, the horse pulled far too hard because of the desperately slow early pace and yet, despite this, he still ran a mighty race to be second. I strongly suspect See That Storm, an improving four-year-old gelding, will be winning again before the season is out so, if you have a horse tracker, I suggest you put him in it.
Pending:
1 point each way Northern Express at 40-1 for the International, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Witness Stand at 33-1 for the Lennox, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Ebt’s Guard at 25-1 for the Golden Mile, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: + 15.4 points.
1 point each way Celandine at 5-1 for the Summer Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd, Quits.
1 point each way Oneforthegutter at 12-1 for the bet365 Trophy, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 1st. + 14.4 points.
1 point each way Real Dream at 17-2 for the bet365 Trophy, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 3rd. + 0.5 point.
1 point each way Thunder Run at 12-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way See That Storm at 14-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. +2.5 points.
1 point each way Existent at 11-1 for the Mark Heritage, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Non runner. Stake returned.
2025 flat season running total: + 54.86 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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