Tory MPs are in Oxfordshire today for an ‘away day’. It’s supposed to focus on the autumn statement, but Tory MPs also want to make a few points about the Prime Minister’s immigration policies (read Fraser’s Telegraph column on the problems with aping Ukip) and others want to complain about the Coalition continuing when the Lib Dems have blocked the EU referendum bill and are complaining about the Tory stance on drugs (this will be in vain, but a good number of backbenchers have told me they want to bring it up anyway).
But the funny thing about this away day is that many Tory backbenchers were rather surprised to find themselves travelling to Oxfordshire at all. Most had assumed that they would be pitching up in Rochester for a rousing powerpoint presentation from Lynton Crosby followed by an energising afternoon on the doorstep. Perhaps they were wrong all along, but perhaps an afternoon of campaigning wouldn’t have roused their spirits when no-one in the party seems to think they can win the seat back for the Tories from defector Mark Reckless.
In my Telegraph column today, I find some Tories who are looking forward to that ‘perfect storm’ of a loss in Rochester, a rebellion on the European Arrest Warrant and the Prime Minister being forced to pay some sort of bill to the European Commission. Tory nerves about the by-election now mean that a loss will be in one sense priced into the political debate, but it will still lead would-be defectors to believe that Ukip is not as risky a bet as they once thought.
So what can Crosby say in his powerpoint presentation that will calm those nerves and take the force out of that perfect storm? Our leading article this week argues that to beat Ukip, ‘David Cameron must respond by exuding a sense of purpose and direction’ and making it clearer to would-be Ukip voters what his party really can offer them. That is even harder than a set-piece speech on immigration – which is hard enough when no-one believes what you’re saying anyway – and to communicate that message, Cameron needs to bring his rather fragile party with him. It will be interesting to see how effective the away day is in encouraging that.
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