Since being elected as a Liberal Democrat MP in 1997, Ed Davey has been through many phases: conventional Paddy Ashdown supporting social democrat; contributor to the free-market Orange Book; cabinet minister under a Conservative Prime Minister; knight of the realm; ‘bollocks to Brexit’ remainiac; and now, leader of his party and professional orchestrator of cringy election stunts. Superficially, he is performing his latest role with some success.
As Lib Dem activists gather in Bournemouth this weekend for their annual conference, many will be buoyant. The party’s recent by-election win in Somerton and Frome was their fourth such victory since Davey became leader, with hopes of another next month in Mid Bedfordshire. In May’s local elections, the Lib Dems gained control of 12 councils and added more than 400 councillors. When fawningly interviewed recently by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart on Leading (a spin-off from their centrist-dad podcast The Rest is Politics), Davey was touted as a potential kingmaker in 2024, should Labour fall short of an overall majority.
And yet, much as Nigel Farage wondered in 2010 of the European Council president, Herman Van Rompuy, I find myself asking: what is the point of Ed Davey? As with Van Rompuy, having the appearance of a ‘low-grade bank clerk’ has its political advantages. Much of the British electorate is still recuperating from the frenzy of the Johnson years, and the appetite for calmer, worthier political leaders is understandable. Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer both benefit from a perception that they are more serious, if less interesting, figures than their predecessors. But even if voters are yearning for a dull managerialist – is there anyone whose dull managerialist of choice is Ed Davey?
The Lib Dem leader is clearly a decent human being. Orphaned as a teenager, he has spoken movingly about caring for his son, John, who was born with an undiagnosed neurological condition. There is clearly a compelling story to tell about Davey the man, however boring his demeanour. The problem is that Davey himself seems singularly unable to tell it. Despite being elected to parliament over a quarter of a century ago, YouGov polling shows almost half of Brits haven’t even heard of him. Those who have, seem unimpressed – with only 16 per cent of voters having a positive opinion of him. Despite his party’s recent by-election successes, which frankly should be considered par-for-the-course if you’re the Lib Dems, their poll average is actually lower than the months before their disastrous result in 2019.
The first reason for this is perhaps Davey’s similarity to Sunak and Starmer. ‘Vote for me, I’m a grown-up’ might have held sway if the Tories and Labour still led by Johnson and Corbyn. Instead, his earnestness makes Davey indistinguishable from the Prime Minister and opposition leader. Historically, the Liberals have always made their most significant electoral gains under charismatic leaders: Jeremy Thorpe; Paddy Ashdown; and Charles Kennedy. Where a Daisy Cooper, or even a Layla Moran, might provide a contrast with Sunak and Starmer, Davey is drawn in the same sepia tones and struggles to stand out.
Secondly, his electoral strategy seems highly questionable. Curiously for a man who served in a Conservative-led cabinet, when speaking to Campbell and Stewart, Davey went out of his way to stress his values were ‘anti-Tory’. Yet 43 of the Lib Dems’ top 50 target seats are currently held by the Conservatives – the so-called blue wall. Yes, there are many natural Tories who will be tempted to register a protest vote in favour of the Lib Dems, but Davey needs to demonstrate that he shares their values, not rejects them. Perhaps the experience of losing his seat in 2015, after five years of coalition, still scars him – but he should note it was the Conservatives, not Labour, who gained from the Lib Dem losses.
Finally, in the absence of any great personal charisma, Davey could at least deploy a tried and tested Lib Dem trick: an eye-catching policy offer to sell on the doorstep. Under Ashdown, the party campaigned to increase education funding paid for by a 1p increase in income tax. Under Kennedy, opposition to the Iraq war was simple and effective. Even under Clegg, the Lib Dem pledge to scrap tuition fees paid dividends (at least it did in 2010, until they U-turned on their promise and suffered the consequences). What is Ed Davey’s equivalent retail-politics offer to voters? At the moment, it appears to be adding ‘X’ as a gender option on UK passports.
The most successful Lib Dem leaders combine personal charisma with an ability to effectively contrast themselves against both the Conservatives and Labour. The party’s current leader does neither. So what is the point of him?
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