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A bitcoin windfall won’t save the Chancellor

This weekend, the Sunday Telegraph reported that Rachel Reeves is eyeing a ‘£5 billion bitcoin sale’ to ease the pressure on the public finances. Some commentators have grasped the wrong end of the stick here – these sales could not be used to fill a ‘black hole’ under the current fiscal rules. Others have argued that it would be foolish to dump cryptoassets that may still increase significantly in value. Unfavourable comparisons are inevitably being drawn with Gordon Brown’s sale of gold reserves starting in 1999. But that may be wide of the mark too. So, what to make of all this? Unlike true ‘safe havens’, the price of bitcoin tends to

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Make the government use KPIs

How do we mend the UK’s broken economy? Fixing UK PLC has outwitted our political leaders, but that’s not surprising. We love the status quo, have an ingrained risk aversion, and our politicians too quickly resort to pickpocketing the electorate with more taxes, and saddling us with debt. What we need are some KPIs, or key performance indicators, to get back on track. KPIs are time-bound goals with clear numerical targets, and critically the person who is responsible for their delivery is identified and on the hook. To enhance transparency, our government’s KPIs should be overlaid with a traffic light system, to squeeze the managerial pips – green for success, amber

Ian Williams

Is China cooking the books on its economy?

A Western financial analyst based in Shanghai once described China’s economic statistics to me as ‘one of greatest works of contemporary Chinese fiction’. Not even the Communist party’s (CCP) own officials believed them. A cottage industry of esoteric techniques developed to try and measure what was really going on, ranging from diesel and electricity demand to the fluctuating levels of the country’s chronic air pollution, car sales, traffic congestion, job postings and construction – even the sale of underwear or pickled vegetables. One enterprising analyst regularly sent spies to Shanghai port to count the ships and throughput of trucks. Questioning the official figures has become increasingly dangerous in the China

Labour will regret bringing in electric car subsidies

This week the British government introduced subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs). But as they have failed to first adopt sensible trade defence measures, this risks Chinese EVs flooding the UK, bringing job losses and data security risks in their wake. Rather than following the example of the US and the European Union, which have adopted tariffs against Chinese EVs to protect automotive jobs, the UK will roll out subsidies for EVs. Each vehicle that qualifies as having a low enough level of carbon emissions in its production will be granted a subsidy of either £1,500 or £3,750. Ministers have so far refused to publish a list of manufacturers who will be eligible,

Michael Simmons

Rachel Reeves’s tax raid is to blame for rising unemployment

Unemployment has hit 4.7 per cent – its highest level for four years after the Chancellor’s taxes on business caused jobs to slump. The figures, published this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), also show payroll jobs down by 178,000 in the 12 months to June and by 41,000 between May and June. The line that Rachel Reeves’ decision – namely her £25 billion employer national insurance tax raid – is hampering the job market is becoming a strong one. Andrew Griffith, shadow business secretary, said: ‘Unemployment is the only thing growing under Labour.’ As Reeves weighs up tax rises likely to fall heavily on businesses to plug

Martin Vander Weyer

Why wealth taxes don’t work

The nation owes the former Labour leader Neil Kinnock an eternal debt for losing the 1992 general election when he was clear favourite to win it, thereby sparing us whatever socialist folly he might have brought to Downing Street. I salute him again for popping up to propose a 2 per cent wealth tax on fortunes above £10 million that might raise a supposed £11 billion for the hard-pressed Chancellor – thereby bringing into sharp focus the vague threat that several cabinet ministers have studiously refused to rule out. Pressure is building on Rachel Reeves from backbenchers, unions and anti-poverty campaign groups to mount a raid on the rich in

Michael Simmons

Broke Britain: how the Bank of England wrecked the economy

In February 2020, a few weeks before Britain was thrown into lockdown, Sajid Javid resigned as chancellor of the exchequer over a bust-up with the prime minister’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. The fight was thought to be over Cummings’s attempts to dictate who could and could not work in No. 11. In fact, it was just one skirmish in a long-running and bitter power struggle between the two men. Two months before his resignation, Javid had claimed victory in a different battle against Cummings – one over who would occupy the governor’s office at the Bank of England. Cummings wanted Andy Haldane, then the Bank’s chief economist, who he believed

Ross Clark

Britain can’t afford to let migrants live on benefits

When the history of the next election comes to be written, we may end up asking: was the turning point for its outcome the moment that Keir Starmer’s government backtracked on its welfare reforms in the face of a backbench revolt? The fiasco, which eliminated the government’s hopes of saving £5 billion a year, has made any welfare reform during the current Parliament impossible.   Britain has become the benefits office of the world The cost of that is becoming more evident by the day. Figures revealed this morning show that there are currently 3.6 million people receiving Universal Credit who are under no obligation whatsoever to look for work. They

Cutting bank holidays for French workers is a bad idea

Banning the baguette, perhaps? Or making it compulsory to eat a sandwich at your desk at lunchtime? If you think hard enough, it is possible to imagine reform that would create more anger in France. Even so, prime minister Francois Bayrou’s plan to scrap two public holidays is right up there. Bayrou wants to reduce France’s 11 public holidays in a bid to kick-start France’s economy. Bayrou said Easter Monday had ‘no religious significance’, and the whole nation had to work and produce more. He said that bank holidays had turned the month of May into a gruyère – a Swiss cheese full of holes. He said that bank holidays had turned

Michael Simmons

Rising inflation shows how the Bank of England is failing

The rate of inflation climbed to 3.6 per cent in June – up from 3.4 per cent in May. That’s well above the 2 per cent target that the Bank of England consistently misses. It begs the question why the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, spent the weekend talking up rate cuts, when as one former Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member put it to me recently: ‘The job is not yet done’. This morning’s inflation figures, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show much of the increase in prices was driven by motor fuel costs, but clothing and footwear, leisure activities and booze were up too. Food inflation has increased

Michael Simmons

No, Rachel Reeves: Britain doesn’t look ‘open for business’

Rachel Reeves wants Britain to become a shareholder democracy. In her annual Mansion House speech to the City’s bankers, accountants and financial advisors, she said ‘for too long, we have presented investment in too negative a light’. She’s right. These changes are unlikely to unleash the ‘big bang’ of prosperity and tax revenues the Chancellor badly wants and badly needs The Chancellor meant that regulation – which she called the ‘boot on the neck of business’ – has led to too many scary warnings about the risks of investing and not enough talking up of the benefits. She’s referring to the legally mandated ‘investment carries risk’ type messages you hear

Ross Clark

Rachel Reeves’s mortgage reforms reek of desperation

Just how desperate is Rachel Reeves to achieve her elusive economic growth? Desperate enough, it seems, to risk a rush of repossessions in a future housing crisis. One of the big announcements in her Mansion House speech this evening, it has been reported, will be a new, permanent mortgage guarantee scheme, plus changes to mortgage eligibility to make it easier for homebuyers to borrow high multiples of their income and take out high loan-to-value mortgages. The UK economy is horribly reliant on the housing market for growth What could possibly go wrong? Reeves looks like she will be following the example of Gordon Brown, who presided over an era of

Ross Clark

Bribing motorists to buy electric vehicles is an expensive mistake

At last, the government has found a use for that large pile of surplus money which has been causing it such a headache: it is going to bribe motorists with grants of up to £3,750 to buy an electric car. If that sounds familiar, it is because the previous, Conservative government had a similar scheme, offering grants of up to £4,000 before they were whittled down and withdrawn in 2022. Chucking money at EV-buyers is going to cause a lot of trouble for very little gain If the government is going to subsidise the purchase of electric cars on the grounds that they are less environmentally-damaging than petrol and diesel

Rachel Reeves’s ‘Big Bang’ is doomed

We probably won’t see the return of shoulder pads, big hair, or yuppies swilling champagne in the bars around Liverpool Street. Even so, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves will promise a return to the go-go spirit of the 1980s in her Mansion House speech this evening, with a pledge of ‘Big Bang’ style deregulation to boost growth and get the financial markets moving again. There is just one catch – and it’s a big one: Reeves is making the wrong reforms, and all Labour’s other policies are destroying confidence. The Chancellor’s shake-up is doomed to fail. There is no point in promising a ‘Big Bang’ for the City while also driving

Michael Simmons

Tax rises are inevitable

The string of bleak economic updates continues. First we had the dire report by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) into fiscal risks, which showed how we’re hurtling towards financial disaster. Now we’ve got figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) that reveal the economy shrank in May – the second month in a row. The data, released this morning, shows that GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in May after shrinking by 0.3 per cent in April. The ONS said the most notable contractions were in production and construction, while services (the backbone of our economy) managed to grow slightly. The contraction in production (down 0.9 per cent)

Michael Simmons

Badenoch is right: the benefits bill could cripple Britain

‘We are becoming a welfare state with an economy attached,’ said Kemi Badenoch in a speech on sickness benefits today. She’s right, though anyone who read the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) dire report this week knows we’re past becoming: we already are. The figures are staggering. The bill for sickness benefits is heading towards £100 billion a year. Soon, one in every four income tax pounds will go just to cover these payments. Meanwhile, a million young people are doing nothing at all –not in work, not in education, not in training. Badenoch called this not only ‘unaffordable and unjustifiable, but immoral’. Again, she’s right. In a fiery speech hosted

Martin Vander Weyer

Don’t compensate drivers for mis-sold car loans

Surprisingly big numbers are the theme of this week’s column, several having flashed up to disturb the pleasures of a summer season of parties, music and sport. The first is the 69,000 tally of jobs shed in the UK hospitality industry since the increase in employer’s national insurance contributions in October’s Budget – the most destructive legislative measure for business in recent memory, except perhaps for the Employment Rights Bill that’s expected to receive Royal Assent before parliament’s recess this month. The UKHospitality trade association thinks losses could rise to between 150,000 and 200,000 by the autumn, as 70 per cent of member businesses cut more staff and pub closures