Money

The rate of inflation climbed to 3.6 per cent in June – up from 3.4 per cent in May. That’s well above the 2 per cent target that the Bank of England consistently misses. It begs the question why the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, spent the weekend talking up rate cuts, when as one former Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member put it to me recently: ‘The job is not yet done’. This morning’s inflation figures, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show much of the increase in prices was driven by motor fuel costs, but clothing and footwear, leisure activities and booze were up too. Food inflation has increased

Rachel Reeves wants Britain to become a shareholder democracy. In her annual Mansion House speech to the City’s bankers, accountants and financial advisors, she said ‘for too long, we have presented investment in too negative a light’. She’s right. These changes are unlikely to unleash the ‘big bang’ of prosperity and tax revenues the Chancellor badly wants and badly needs The Chancellor meant that regulation – which she called the ‘boot on the neck of business’ – has led to too many scary warnings about the risks of investing and not enough talking up of the benefits. She’s referring to the legally mandated ‘investment carries risk’ type messages you hear

‘We are becoming a welfare state with an economy attached,’ said Kemi Badenoch in a speech on sickness benefits today. She’s right, though anyone who read the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) dire report this week knows we’re past becoming: we already are. The figures are staggering. The bill for sickness benefits is heading towards £100 billion a year. Soon, one in every four income tax pounds will go just to cover these payments. Meanwhile, a million young people are doing nothing at all –not in work, not in education, not in training. Badenoch called this not only ‘unaffordable and unjustifiable, but immoral’. Again, she’s right. In a fiery speech hosted

The public won’t forgive and nor will I, said Health Secretary Wes Streeting of plans by junior doctors to strike over his refusal to cave to demands for 29 per cent pay rises. Speaking to the Times he said: ‘There are no grounds for strike action now. Resident doctors have just received the highest pay award across the entire public sector. The Government can’t afford to offer more and it wouldn’t be fair to other NHS workers either, many of whom are paid less’. He’s completely right.  Just shy of half of the British Medical Association’s (BMA) junior doctors (they’re now called resident doctors) voted for strike action, but because of low turnout it

Britain is in trouble. That’s the judgement of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in their ‘fiscal risks and sustainability’ document released this morning. The language is polite, matter of fact and bureaucratic. But read between the lines, look at the numbers and it paints a damning picture of the risks we face as a country. In the 1950s, the state pension accounted for 2 per cent of GDP. Within 50 years it will cost nearly 8 per cent. This is not something an aging population can afford After a series of economic shocks, the report says, Britain is in a ‘relatively vulnerable position’. Our deficit (nearly 6 per cent of

Health Secretary Wes Streeting says that the changes to the Welfare Bill will ‘give people peace of mind’. Perhaps for some, but certainly not economists. Britain’s welfare crisis is staggering – £313 billion a year is spent on disability payments, Universal Credit, winter fuel payments, Motability, child benefit, and, most expensive of them all, the state pension. Currently, the state pension costs  over £150 billion a year, and is engineered to grow at the highest of either inflation, wage growth, or 2.5 per cent. When you factor in our rapidly aging population, the welfare state is quite literally primed to blow. Whitehall is on a collision course of its own

It was already a bad enough week for the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, what with the collapse of their welfare reforms. But now news has leaked that AstraZeneca’s CEO Sir Pascal Soriot has reportedly discussed moving its listing from London to New York. There is nothing official yet, and no decision has been made. But for the boss of Britain’s most valuable listed company to even contemplate upping sticks spells trouble for the UK economy. It is not hard to blame him. Over-regulation has turned the London market into a relative backwater. Meanwhile, Wall Street has been booming. The business would be more highly

‘No one votes Labour to cut the welfare state. People vote Labour to grow the welfare state. That’s the role of the party.’ That’s what John McTernan, Labour strategist, said on Coffee House Shots last week. He’s absolutely correct, of course. But the ballooning cost of the benefits bill means that Labour now faces an uncomfortable decision, for which many of its MPs seem ill prepared. The total cost for Personal Independence Payments (PIP) alone is expected to reach £35 billion by the end of this decade, up from £16 billion in 2019-20 and £26.5 billion in 2024-25. The total benefits bill, including the state pension, universal credit and other

The poorest Brits now owe £6.6 billion in unpaid council tax – a record high and up some 85 per cent since before the pandemic. That’s according to data released this morning by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, which suggests Britain is plunging back into a cost-of-living crisis. What’s more, a report also out today by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) finds that between 2022 and 2024, some 400,000 more households slipped into arrears, taking the total number of people in debt to their local council to 1.8 million. The CSJ’s report also finds that 97 per cent of those in arrears have at least one

One of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s few big ideas for boosting growth was to persuade pension funds to invest more of their assets in Britain. But hold on. Today, we learned that Scottish Widows, one of the biggest funds, is dramatically reducing its exposure to this country – and it is quite right to do so. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of 235 per cent, compared with just 92 per cent for the FTSE 100 The fund managers at the Lloyds-owned Scottish Widows, which controls £72 billion of workplace pensions assets, clearly didn’t get the memo about how this was the moment to put

The rate of inflation remained flat at 3.4 per cent in May – still well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. Bizarrely, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in their figures released this morning, claims this is down from 3.5 per cent the month before, even though just a couple of weeks ago they admitted that figure was overstated due to an error. Because of a policy not to revise inflation figures, that error lives on – leading them to announce the fiction that inflation has fallen. The reality is it has not. The result of stubbornly sticking to this no-revisions policy is a slew of misreporting

Rachel Reeves may finally have seen sense. A report in this morning’s Financial Times suggests she is ‘exploring’ performing a 180 on the changes to inheritance tax rules which meant non doms would have to pay the death tax on their global assets – even on wealth earned before they came to the UK. As I explained in our magazine cover piece last month, the fact that these changes – which came into force in April – would apply retroactively is what really sent non-doms over the edge and led them to flee the country in large numbers, taking their wealth and not insignificant tax revenues with them. Rachel Reeves has to deal

Motability, the scheme set up to provide vehicles, scooters and powered wheelchairs to disabled people, has become something of a monster. By the end of 2024, Motability supported a staggering 815,000 vehicles, up by 200,000 in the last two years alone. It is clear that the scheme has extended way beyond its original purpose and is in dire need of reform. But Motability is determined not to give up its lucrative business model without a fight. Only five per cent of Motability cars are adapted for those with physical disabilities Andrew Miller, the scheme’s chief executive, has hit back at criticism of Motability. ‘We’ve been a business all along. Any sense

Writing about Britain’s spending plans has started to feel a bit like swimming through treacle. It’s not that there aren’t lots of interesting observations to make about Wednesday’s £300 billion spending announcement. Such as the fact that the NHS sucks up the bulk of the resource spending with a 3 per cent rise in real terms, while every other department combined only grows by 0.2 per cent. Or that the health service will soon take up nearly half of all day-to-day government spending on services. Or that only 13 per cent of Rachel Reeves’s capital spending increase is classed as ‘growth-focused’. It’s hard to pay attention to this because of the sense

Rachel Reeves delivered her spending plans for the next three years less than 24 hours ago, but already the credibility of the Chancellor’s plans are in doubt. GDP fell by 0.3 per cent in April, according to figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It spells the end of a run of more positive economic readings that Reeves had hoped would buy her room to manoeuvre in the run up to the autumn budget – when she will have to explain to the Office for Budget Responsibility, and the nation, how her spending review sums add up. The economy contracted across both services and manufacturing with

Rachel Reeves will apparently tell us today that she has chosen stability over chaos. It is one of the Chancellor’s standard lines, but it is very much beyond her control. Bond markets will have the ultimate say. They didn’t much like her Budget in October – indeed, long-term borrowing costs are higher now than they were in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini Budget in September – and they might not like the spending review much more. That is a potent mixture for economic gloom – it is the economy’s mental health we should be worried about most The underlying synopsis behind today’s fiscal event is that the government is